"...I'm going to take my talents to South Beach..." -LeBron James
Those are the nine simple words that make the 2010-2011 NBA season the most anticipated and fascinating to watch in some time. For as much criticism "The Decision" received (warranted) it expanded interest for this season. There's a new power in the league in the Miami Heat led by the trio of Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh. With "The Decision" the Heat instantly became the villains of the league. What they also did was turn themselves into a team that you won't be able to keep your eyes off of. While Miami will get the attention, no one should discount the teams that battled for seven brutal games to decide the championship last season, the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics. Los Angeles and Boston both improved their teams from last season and are gearing up for another championship run. Looking at the rest of the league, there are the new darlings (Oklahoma City), consistency (Orlando, Dallas, San Antonio), improvement (New York, Chicago), the dangerous (Portland, Utah, Houston), question marks (Phoenix, Denver), and little hope (Cleveland, Toronto). While the Heat will be the story of the season in many ways, several teams altered their roster over the off-season. This NBA season brings a big group of teams that have a chance of making the playoffs while at the same time having very few that have a legitimate chance of winning the championship. It would be a surprise if the Lakers, Celtics, or Heat did not win the championship. It would be a shock if one of those three teams Orlando or Oklahoma City did not win it. Having set the stage here's my team-by-team breakdown and predictions for the 2010-2011 NBA season. Let the season begin!
FINAL STANDINGS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
ATLANTIC DIVISION
1. Boston Celtics (3) - Tough, experienced group. One year the core will be too old. They possess size in Garnett, the O'Neal's (Shaq and Jermaine) and Perkins (once he returns from injury). The bench will likely be up and down with the likes of Nate Robinson, Delonte West, and Glen Davis. When it's up, they'll be very tough to beat. Rondo needs to take on more responsibility considering his skills and the age of his teammates. The Celtics won't go down without one hell of a fight.
2. New York Knicks (7) - The off-season the Knicks had been waiting years for was a success and failure as New York missed on LeBron, but signed Amare Stoudemire. Amare has shown he cannot be the best (and possibly not the second best) player on a team legitimately competing for a championship, but he will help improve this one. For an organization that has made tons of mistakes over recent years, the haul they got for David Lee (Anthony Randolph, Ronny Turiaf, and Kelenna Azubuike) was an underrated move that provided them an actual NBA roster for a change.
3. Philadelphia 76ers (8) - One of the toughest teams to figure out. They have names on the roster, but can they stay healthy and coexist? The Sixers will need Elton Brand to be healthy and productive, Andre Igoudala to be efficient, and improvements/consistency out of Jrue Holiday, Thaddeus Young, and Marreese Speights to be in position for a playoff berth. Fresh blood in head coach Doug Collins may help them get there if they buy in.
4. New Jersey Nets (11) - After striking out in the free agency bonanza, the Nets had to settle for Travis Outlaw (ridiculously overpaid), Anthony Morrow, and Jordan Farmar. They also added Troy Murphy (trade), Derrick Favors (draft) and head coach Avery Johnson. Brook Lopez is becoming one of the game's best big men and a player to build a team around. The team last season had more talent than their 12 wins would suggest. They'll be better this season from a talent and win standpoint.
5. Toronto Raptors (15) - It didn't take long to get to the worst team in the NBA. For as much attention LeBron got for destroying his former basketball team, Chris Bosh did a pretty good job of doing the same to Toronto. The Raptors also had one of the worst signings of the off-season in giving Amir Johnson 5 years, $34 million. The roster is effectively made up of mediocre "role" players, with a few minor exceptions. If your team is counting on DeMar DeRozan or Linas Kleiza to be its second best player in 2010, that's not a good sign. Sorry Toronto, it's going to be a long season.
CENTRAL DIVISION
1. Chicago Bulls (4) - This bandwagon is getting full. The Bulls have built a formidable core, and while they are on the rise, they are not at the level of the top teams in their conference yet. The Carlos Boozer signing should help a lot once he comes back from injury. His health is vital. The Bulls lack depth and outside shooting in the starting lineup. New head coach Tom Thibodeau should make this team disciplined and tough defensively. Derrick Rose needs to take the next step up for this team to be great.
2. Milwaukee Bucks (6) - Another tough team to figure out. While Brandon Jennings had a fine season for a rookie, he'll have to improve his consistency and shooting percentage (37%) from last year. The health of Andrew Bogut is paramount. The Bucks massively overpaid for Drew Gooden (5 years, $32 million), but he'll contribute. Milwaukee's bench will serve as a strength. Fourth in the conference seems to be their ceiling and if the East were any better, it wouldn't be a surprise to see them fight for a playoff spot.
3. Indiana Pacers (9) - Call me crazy, but I see a lot of potential in the Darren Collison, Danny Granger, Roy Hibbert trio. The Pacers will expect Collison to progress, Granger to stay healthy, and Hibbert to make a jump this year. Call me crazy again, but I think Hibbert will be excellent this year averaging something around 16 points, 8 rebounds (or better). Outside of that trio, it gets thin quick. Next to Hibbert on the front line are Tyler Hansbrough, Josh McRoberts, and Jeff Foster. That's a bit rough. This team could very well slide into a playoff spot if everything goes right. If not, they could vault to one of the bottom teams in the conference.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers (13) - LeBron dropping the big one on the city of Cleveland and its basketball team leaves this team without a viable star and inevitably pushes them into rebuilding mode in the fallout no matter what owner Dan Gilbert writes. Cleveland is another team that is relying on "role" players to contribute more than they have ever been asked to, but they should be better than most expect. They have some talented players and will be playing with something to prove. Unfortunately, the Cavs are a lock to have the greatest decrease in win total from last year.
5. Detroit Pistons (14) - The Detroit Pistons are a poorly constructed team. The three stars from their championship team, Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, and Ben Wallace can't contribute nearly as much as they used to and carry injury concerns. The point guard combo of Rodney Stuckey and Will Bynum is nothing to get excited about. Worst of all are the dreadful signings of Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva to come off the bench. Those two will make roughly $18 million this year. Two potential bright points are seen in the development of Austin Daye and Greg Monroe alongside a team that should be healthier than a year ago.
SOUTHEAST DIVISION
1. Miami Heat (1) - Here we go. The Heat struck gold by re-signing Dwyane Wade and signing LeBron James and Chris Bosh. Right away this team can compete for the championship, but there are holes and that's part of the reason why I don't agree with the notion that the new "Big Three" took a drastic pay cut to play together. If they really wanted to help themselves out they could have given Heat management more flexibility to make moves with more impact. While they were able to retain Udonis Haslem and bring in Mike Miller, those were players who took less to play in Miami. The "Big Three" took a pay cut, but it was not as significant as some are letting on. It also caused most of the rest of the roster that was brought in to take less to play there. The Heat's main weakness, size, happens to be the strength of two of their biggest threats, the Lakers and Celtics. Every time I look for reasons to doubt this team, I remember that they have two of the top four players in the game. LeBron and Wade's ability to penetrate will open things on the outside for shooters Miller, Eddie House, James Jones, and whoever else is on the floor. An extremely dangerous team, but are they built to play the Lakers and Celtics in a seven game series?
2. Orlando Magic (2) - It's time for Dwight Howard to be a force on the offensive end, period. He's too strong and has too much potential to disappear when someone his own size guards him in the playoffs. Sure, he dominates the regular season, but when the going gets tough in the playoffs he is MIA too often. The Magic are going to have to ride his back if they want to get by Miami and Boston in the East. Alongside Dwight are a collection of capable players, but no one that will take over when it counts. As often as Vince Carter rises to the occasion, he disappears four other times. Did you know that Carter and Rashard Lewis are making over $37 million combined this year? Another key is developing a rotation for the playoffs.
3. Atlanta Hawks (5) - Talented starting lineup, but not a lot off the bench that can be depended on in the playoffs outside of Jamal Crawford. Atlanta is athletic, but needs the bench to be solid and consistent. The Hawks had almost everything go right in the regular season, but their deficiencies were exposed in the playoffs and that embarrassing showing against the Magic. It's time for this team to grow up. One of the most criticized signings in the off-season was Joe Johnson's max deal. While Johnson is a fine player, he's not the type to give #1 money to and build your team around. The Hawks will be paying him almost $25 million when he's 34 years old.
4. Washington Wizards (10) - The Wizards should make a jump up with the addition of John Wall and if Gilbert Arenas (the single worst contract in the NBA) can stay healthy and sane. It will be interesting to see how they play together. Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee should make considerable jumps in production this year. It also remains to be seen if Washington can get anything out of Josh Howard, Yi Jianlian, and/or Al Thornton. The second unit will get destroyed in the paint.
5. Charlotte Bobcats (12) - Expecting a drop off this year, though they have the talent to make the playoffs. D.J. Augustin is thrust into the starting lineup after a disappointing season a year ago and the loss of Raymond Felton. If things start out poorly, it could turn ugly with the personalities of Stephen Jackson, Boris Diaw, Tyrus Thomas, and head coach Larry Brown. In fact, it's year three of Larry Brown, right about the time he usually jumps ship. The team is built with too many 6'7"-6'10" players and depth is a concern. The center position features, Nazr Mohammed, DeSagana Diop, and Kwame Brown. Need I write more?
LOCKS
Playoffs: Miami, Orlando, Boston, Chicago, Atlanta
Not in playoffs: Toronto
WESTERN CONFERENCE
NORTHWEST DIVISION
1. Portland Trail Blazers (3) - Yes, turmoil at the top of the organization, but the Trail Blazers have an exceptional roster that if it can stay healthy will make this team extremely dangerous. The key, as always, is health. Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla will both likely be out of action at the beginning of the season, but if healthy will change the expectations for this team. Brandon Roy is another player that always needs to be monitored from a health standpoint. When he's healthy he's one of the top 15 players in the game and someone who can be relied on as a #1 talent. This is the team that isn't getting the attention, but if everything comes together will be come playoff time.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder (4) - Just about everyone is picking the Thunder to finish in the top two in the conference and challenge the Lakers in the playoffs. They certainly have the talent and leadership to do it, but now they have a target on their back and they'll have to be consistent. They also faced almost zero adversity last season. Perhaps the biggest winner out of "The Decision" was Kevin Durant who showed humility in signing his new contract and led the United States to the Gold Medal in the FIBA World Championship. The Thunder are so well constructed and have flexibility moving forward. With all the talent on the roster, there is not a single player making $7 million or more this season. Oklahoma City will be great.
3. Utah Jazz (5) - Utah did a fine job of filling holes that were left when they lost Carlos Boozer, Wesley Matthews, and Kyle Korver. Instead of having to rebuild, they traded for Al Jefferson, signed Raja Bell, and drafted Gordon Hayward. Jefferson will offensive punch and size while Deron Williams is as good as there is at point guard. They are still left with some of the same problems they have had as they will not have both size and defense on the floor at the same time from their front line. They'll need Mehmet Okur to return from injury healthy and productive.
4. Denver Nuggets (9) - Stability would not be a word used to describe this team. Head coach George Karl is coming back after battling cancer, Kenyon Martin wants a new deal, and then there's Carmelo Anthony and the unknown surrounding his situation. This is a collection of players that are dangerous when things are going well, but volatile when things aren't. With the uncertainties surrounding them I'm counting on things not going well, which would be a shame given Karl's return to the team. If things do happen to go well, they could be a decent playoff team with the addition of Al Harrington.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves (15) - The clear cut favorite to finish with the worst record in the conference. This is an extremely young team without a legitimate star that's trying to develop as a collective group. They don't have a player over 30 years old and only two above 25. The Timberwolves don't have a single player making over $5 million this year. While they didn't get enough return when they traded Al Jefferson, they did well in acquiring Martell Webster and Michael Beasley. The goal now has to be to figure out who can play and who can't. Minnesota's roster is locked in for the most part, so they are either going to grow or move some players to have more roster flexibility.
PACIFIC DIVISION
1. Los Angeles Lakers (1) - The scary thing is that the two-time defending champions improved their team from a year ago. By adding Steve Blake, Matt Barnes, and Theo Ratliff, the Lakers have the best team they have had since Shaquille O'Neal was traded. They now possess a reliable second unit, a weakness last season. The Lakers will probably opt to rest their core players as much as possible setting them up for a fourth straight trip to the NBA Finals. The major issue is keeping the team healthy. Andrew Bynum will miss at least the first month of the season recovering from knee surgery. Keeping Kobe Bryant's minutes down should be a priority given his lingering injuries. All things point to another deep playoff run.
2. Phoenix Suns (8) - The Suns didn't necessarily do the best job of replacing Amare Stoudemire as they brought in talent, but not at the right positions. They have too many players who play the same position and do similar things. Phoenix will be forced to play a small lineup which will make things difficult for Robin Lopez around the rim on both ends. They're going to have a very tough time stopping big men. The Suns will have to use their athleticism and run and gun. There is very little margin for error here. Don't count out a squad led by Steve Nash.
3. Los Angeles Clippers (10) - I know that you should never believe in the Clippers, but this is a promising team (if healthy of course). Blake Griffin will likely win the Rookie of the Year award if healthy and Eric Gordon should be greatly improved. A big concern outside of health is Baron Davis and his investment in winning. They have potential stars in place and a solid enough group around them. That probably means that something will go horribly wrong.
4. Sacramento Kings (13) - An intriguing team that outperformed expectations last season, especially in the beginning. This is the type of team that if you take them for granted will beat you up physically and on the scoreboard. DeMarcus Cousins should be able to step right in and contribute given he has the right mindset. The Cousins-Tyreke Evans combination is a nice starting point, but more help is needed. They will be in a decent place financially after shedding Samuel Dalembert's expiring contract off the books after this season.
5. Golden State Warriors (14) - The Warriors overpaid for David Lee, but it's understandable given team need and the market. The problem is that very little defense will be played. Golden State will be an exciting team to watch most nights and will light up the scoreboard, but stop no one. Another concern is the lack of depth at virtually every position. Someone needs make sure Monta Ellis knows that this is Stephen Curry's team now. Golden State may be happy to find a trade partner for Ellis. Curry and Lee are nice building blocks, but they'll need at least one more star and a bench before they can be taken seriously. At least they'll have a head coach this year.
SOUTHWEST DIVISION
1. Dallas Mavericks (2) - An old, veteran group that performs well in the regular season. They feature three viable big men in Dirk Nowitzki (one of the very best players in the game), Brendan Haywood, and Tyson Chandler. Health is the key there. The Mavericks don't seem to be getting any younger. Seven of the team's top eight in the rotation are at least 28 years old. This is a core that is running out of time. Dallas will have a strong regular season, but are one star away from being a serious championship contender.
2. Houston Rockets (6) - The Rockets (along with the Blazers) are a team that could throw a wrench into the power structure in the Western Conference. Yao Ming absolutely needs to stay healthy for them to have a chance. Houston did a smart thing by announcing they will limit his minutes to 24 per game. This is a team that is full of solid players who know their role and will fill it. If Yao is limited to only 24 minutes, at least one player will have to step up in a big way. Kevin Martin is the key (after Yao's health). Houston has two things that a lot of other teams do not. Depth and size.
3. San Antonio Spurs (7) - The Duncan-Popovich combination is as reliable as there is. The Spurs are likely to continue the trend of managing their core veterans' minutes during the regular season in order to setup a run in the playoffs. Even if they are able to do that, they will have trouble advancing in the playoffs as currently constructed just from a pure talent standpoint. It will be interesting to see how much Tiago Splitter can contribute off the bat and whether Richard Jefferson can mesh in year two. The Tony Parker situation (expiring contract) may get interesting.
4. New Orleans Hornets (11) - This team is Chris Paul. His health and commitment will shape their success. One would expect Paul to get a ton of minutes, but if he's not on the floor, who is running the point? David West is a legitimate #2/#3 player on a good team. Beyond Paul and West though, others on the roster will have to step up their game. Emeka Okafor can play if he's ever healthy, Trevor Ariza is capable of being the fourth best player on a contending team. They are in need of one more #2/#3 option alongside reliable help off the bench. If not for Paul's tremendous talents, which he will hopefully keep in New Orleans, this team would be last in this division.
5. Memphis Grizzlies (12) - Being unselfish is one the keys. O.J. Mayo, Rudy Gay, and Zach Randolph in particular will have to share and coexist. This is where Mike Conley has to step up and control things. The main issue for the Grizzlies is the lack of depth. While they have a strong starting lineup, there is not one player off the bench that can be counted on for consistent contribution. Hasheem Thabeet has bust written all over him (not that that should come as a shock). The core of Gay, Mayo, and Gasol is put together well enough, but more help is needed from their younger, recent draft picks. Those players will have to step in and fill roles. One final point. Did you know that Rudy Gay effectively signed the same contract with the Grizzlies that Kevin Durant did in his extension with the Thunder? Just sayin'.
LOCKS
Playoffs: Los Angeles Lakers, Dallas, Portland, Oklahoma City, Utah, San Antonio
Not in playoffs: Minnesota, Golden State, Sacramento
PLAYOFFS
FIRST ROUND - EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Miami Heat over (8) Philadelphia 76ers -> 4 games
(2) Orlando Magic over (7) New York Knicks -> 5 games
(3) Boston Celtics over (6) Milwaukee Bucks -> 5 games
(4) Chicago Bulls over (5) Atlanta Hawks -> 7 games
FIRST ROUND - WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Los Angeles Lakers over (8) Phoenix Suns -> 5 games
(2) Dallas Mavericks over (7) San Antonio Spurs -> 6 games
(3) Portland Trail Blazers over (6) Houston Rockets -> 7 games
(4) Oklahoma City over (5) Utah Jazz -> 6 games
CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS - EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Miami Heat over (4) Chicago Bulls -> 6 games
(3) Boston Celtics over (2) Orlando Magic -> 7 games
CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS - WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Los Angeles Lakers over (4) Oklahoma City Thunder -> 7 games
(3) Portland Trail Blazers over (2) Dallas Mavericks -> 6 games
CONFERENCE FINALS - EASTERN CONFERENCE
(3) Boston Celtics over (1) Miami Heat -> 7 games
CONFERENCE FINALS - WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Los Angeles Lakers over (3) Portland Trail Blazers -> 6 games
NBA FINALS
Los Angeles Lakers over Boston Celtics -> 6 games
AWARDS
MVP
1. Kevin Durant
2. Dwight Howard
3. LeBron James
4. Kobe Bryant
5. Dirk Nowitzki
Rookie of the Year
1. Blake Griffin
2. DeMarcus Cousins
3. John Wall
4. Greg Monroe
5. Jordan Crawford
(MORE) PREDICTIONS
STEP FORWARD, UP SEASON (better than last year): Kevin Garnett (BOS), Tyrus Thomas (CHA), Derek Rose (CHI), Taj Gibson (CHI), J.J. Hickson (CLE), Arron Afflalo (DEN), Ben Gordon (DET), Roy Hibbert (IND), Darren Collison (IND), Blake Griffin (LAC), Eric Gordon (LAC), Lamar Odom (LAL), Michael Beasley (MIN), Kevin Love (MIN), Brook Lopez (NJ), Terrence Williams (NJ), Marco Belinelli (NO), Anthony Randolph (NY), Kevin Durant (OKC), Russell Westbrook (OKC), Brandon Roy (POR), Nicolas Batum (POR), Leandro Barbosa (TOR), Paul Millsap (UTA), Andray Blatche (WAS), JaVale McGee (WAS)
STEP BACK, DOWN SEASON (worse than last year): Mike Bibby (ATL), Ray Allen (BOS), Boris Diaw (CHA), Stephen Jackson (CHA), Shawn Marion (DAL), Chauncey Billups (DEN), Kenyon Martin (DEN), Aaron Brooks (HOU), Brandon Jennings (MIL), John Salmons (MIL), Marcus Thornton (NO), Vince Carter (ORL), Evan Turner (PHI), Andrea Bargnani (TOR), Jose Calderon (TOR)
CONTRIBUTE IF GIVEN OPPORTUNITY: Jordan Crawford (ATL), Greg Monroe (DET), Chris Douglas-Roberts (MIL), Ersan Ilyasova (MIL), Martell Webster (MIN), Toney Douglas (NY), Eric Maynor (OKC), Serge Ibaka (OKC), Marcin Gortat (ORL), Ryan Anderson (ORL), Lou Williams (PHI), Goran Dragic (PHX), Greg Oden (POR), Joel Przybilla (POR), Omri Casspi (SAC), Beno Udrih (SAC), DeJuan Blair (SA), George Hill (SA), Gordon Hayward (UTA)
KEEP AN EYE ON: Jeff Teague (ATL), Shaquille O'Neal (BOS), D.J. Augustin (CHA), Ramon Sessions (CLE), Rodrigue Beaubois (DAL), Carmelo Anthony (DEN), Monta Ellis (GSW), Kevin Martin (HOU), Baron Davis (LAC), Mike Conley (MEM), Corey Maggette (MIL), Devin Harris (NJ), Chris Paul (NO), Timofey Mozgov (NY), Jeff Green (OKC), Jameer Nelson (ORL), Jrue Holiday (PHI), Elton Brand (PHI), Hedo Turkoglu (PHX), Tony Parker (SA), Richard Jefferson (SA), Tiago Splitter (SA), DeMar DeRozan (TOR), Linas Kleiza (TOR), Al Jefferson (UTA), John Wall (WAS), Gilbert Arenas (WAS)
Those are the nine simple words that make the 2010-2011 NBA season the most anticipated and fascinating to watch in some time. For as much criticism "The Decision" received (warranted) it expanded interest for this season. There's a new power in the league in the Miami Heat led by the trio of Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh. With "The Decision" the Heat instantly became the villains of the league. What they also did was turn themselves into a team that you won't be able to keep your eyes off of. While Miami will get the attention, no one should discount the teams that battled for seven brutal games to decide the championship last season, the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics. Los Angeles and Boston both improved their teams from last season and are gearing up for another championship run. Looking at the rest of the league, there are the new darlings (Oklahoma City), consistency (Orlando, Dallas, San Antonio), improvement (New York, Chicago), the dangerous (Portland, Utah, Houston), question marks (Phoenix, Denver), and little hope (Cleveland, Toronto). While the Heat will be the story of the season in many ways, several teams altered their roster over the off-season. This NBA season brings a big group of teams that have a chance of making the playoffs while at the same time having very few that have a legitimate chance of winning the championship. It would be a surprise if the Lakers, Celtics, or Heat did not win the championship. It would be a shock if one of those three teams Orlando or Oklahoma City did not win it. Having set the stage here's my team-by-team breakdown and predictions for the 2010-2011 NBA season. Let the season begin!
FINAL STANDINGS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
ATLANTIC DIVISION
1. Boston Celtics (3) - Tough, experienced group. One year the core will be too old. They possess size in Garnett, the O'Neal's (Shaq and Jermaine) and Perkins (once he returns from injury). The bench will likely be up and down with the likes of Nate Robinson, Delonte West, and Glen Davis. When it's up, they'll be very tough to beat. Rondo needs to take on more responsibility considering his skills and the age of his teammates. The Celtics won't go down without one hell of a fight.
2. New York Knicks (7) - The off-season the Knicks had been waiting years for was a success and failure as New York missed on LeBron, but signed Amare Stoudemire. Amare has shown he cannot be the best (and possibly not the second best) player on a team legitimately competing for a championship, but he will help improve this one. For an organization that has made tons of mistakes over recent years, the haul they got for David Lee (Anthony Randolph, Ronny Turiaf, and Kelenna Azubuike) was an underrated move that provided them an actual NBA roster for a change.
3. Philadelphia 76ers (8) - One of the toughest teams to figure out. They have names on the roster, but can they stay healthy and coexist? The Sixers will need Elton Brand to be healthy and productive, Andre Igoudala to be efficient, and improvements/consistency out of Jrue Holiday, Thaddeus Young, and Marreese Speights to be in position for a playoff berth. Fresh blood in head coach Doug Collins may help them get there if they buy in.
4. New Jersey Nets (11) - After striking out in the free agency bonanza, the Nets had to settle for Travis Outlaw (ridiculously overpaid), Anthony Morrow, and Jordan Farmar. They also added Troy Murphy (trade), Derrick Favors (draft) and head coach Avery Johnson. Brook Lopez is becoming one of the game's best big men and a player to build a team around. The team last season had more talent than their 12 wins would suggest. They'll be better this season from a talent and win standpoint.
5. Toronto Raptors (15) - It didn't take long to get to the worst team in the NBA. For as much attention LeBron got for destroying his former basketball team, Chris Bosh did a pretty good job of doing the same to Toronto. The Raptors also had one of the worst signings of the off-season in giving Amir Johnson 5 years, $34 million. The roster is effectively made up of mediocre "role" players, with a few minor exceptions. If your team is counting on DeMar DeRozan or Linas Kleiza to be its second best player in 2010, that's not a good sign. Sorry Toronto, it's going to be a long season.
CENTRAL DIVISION
1. Chicago Bulls (4) - This bandwagon is getting full. The Bulls have built a formidable core, and while they are on the rise, they are not at the level of the top teams in their conference yet. The Carlos Boozer signing should help a lot once he comes back from injury. His health is vital. The Bulls lack depth and outside shooting in the starting lineup. New head coach Tom Thibodeau should make this team disciplined and tough defensively. Derrick Rose needs to take the next step up for this team to be great.
2. Milwaukee Bucks (6) - Another tough team to figure out. While Brandon Jennings had a fine season for a rookie, he'll have to improve his consistency and shooting percentage (37%) from last year. The health of Andrew Bogut is paramount. The Bucks massively overpaid for Drew Gooden (5 years, $32 million), but he'll contribute. Milwaukee's bench will serve as a strength. Fourth in the conference seems to be their ceiling and if the East were any better, it wouldn't be a surprise to see them fight for a playoff spot.
3. Indiana Pacers (9) - Call me crazy, but I see a lot of potential in the Darren Collison, Danny Granger, Roy Hibbert trio. The Pacers will expect Collison to progress, Granger to stay healthy, and Hibbert to make a jump this year. Call me crazy again, but I think Hibbert will be excellent this year averaging something around 16 points, 8 rebounds (or better). Outside of that trio, it gets thin quick. Next to Hibbert on the front line are Tyler Hansbrough, Josh McRoberts, and Jeff Foster. That's a bit rough. This team could very well slide into a playoff spot if everything goes right. If not, they could vault to one of the bottom teams in the conference.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers (13) - LeBron dropping the big one on the city of Cleveland and its basketball team leaves this team without a viable star and inevitably pushes them into rebuilding mode in the fallout no matter what owner Dan Gilbert writes. Cleveland is another team that is relying on "role" players to contribute more than they have ever been asked to, but they should be better than most expect. They have some talented players and will be playing with something to prove. Unfortunately, the Cavs are a lock to have the greatest decrease in win total from last year.
5. Detroit Pistons (14) - The Detroit Pistons are a poorly constructed team. The three stars from their championship team, Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, and Ben Wallace can't contribute nearly as much as they used to and carry injury concerns. The point guard combo of Rodney Stuckey and Will Bynum is nothing to get excited about. Worst of all are the dreadful signings of Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva to come off the bench. Those two will make roughly $18 million this year. Two potential bright points are seen in the development of Austin Daye and Greg Monroe alongside a team that should be healthier than a year ago.
SOUTHEAST DIVISION
1. Miami Heat (1) - Here we go. The Heat struck gold by re-signing Dwyane Wade and signing LeBron James and Chris Bosh. Right away this team can compete for the championship, but there are holes and that's part of the reason why I don't agree with the notion that the new "Big Three" took a drastic pay cut to play together. If they really wanted to help themselves out they could have given Heat management more flexibility to make moves with more impact. While they were able to retain Udonis Haslem and bring in Mike Miller, those were players who took less to play in Miami. The "Big Three" took a pay cut, but it was not as significant as some are letting on. It also caused most of the rest of the roster that was brought in to take less to play there. The Heat's main weakness, size, happens to be the strength of two of their biggest threats, the Lakers and Celtics. Every time I look for reasons to doubt this team, I remember that they have two of the top four players in the game. LeBron and Wade's ability to penetrate will open things on the outside for shooters Miller, Eddie House, James Jones, and whoever else is on the floor. An extremely dangerous team, but are they built to play the Lakers and Celtics in a seven game series?
2. Orlando Magic (2) - It's time for Dwight Howard to be a force on the offensive end, period. He's too strong and has too much potential to disappear when someone his own size guards him in the playoffs. Sure, he dominates the regular season, but when the going gets tough in the playoffs he is MIA too often. The Magic are going to have to ride his back if they want to get by Miami and Boston in the East. Alongside Dwight are a collection of capable players, but no one that will take over when it counts. As often as Vince Carter rises to the occasion, he disappears four other times. Did you know that Carter and Rashard Lewis are making over $37 million combined this year? Another key is developing a rotation for the playoffs.
3. Atlanta Hawks (5) - Talented starting lineup, but not a lot off the bench that can be depended on in the playoffs outside of Jamal Crawford. Atlanta is athletic, but needs the bench to be solid and consistent. The Hawks had almost everything go right in the regular season, but their deficiencies were exposed in the playoffs and that embarrassing showing against the Magic. It's time for this team to grow up. One of the most criticized signings in the off-season was Joe Johnson's max deal. While Johnson is a fine player, he's not the type to give #1 money to and build your team around. The Hawks will be paying him almost $25 million when he's 34 years old.
4. Washington Wizards (10) - The Wizards should make a jump up with the addition of John Wall and if Gilbert Arenas (the single worst contract in the NBA) can stay healthy and sane. It will be interesting to see how they play together. Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee should make considerable jumps in production this year. It also remains to be seen if Washington can get anything out of Josh Howard, Yi Jianlian, and/or Al Thornton. The second unit will get destroyed in the paint.
5. Charlotte Bobcats (12) - Expecting a drop off this year, though they have the talent to make the playoffs. D.J. Augustin is thrust into the starting lineup after a disappointing season a year ago and the loss of Raymond Felton. If things start out poorly, it could turn ugly with the personalities of Stephen Jackson, Boris Diaw, Tyrus Thomas, and head coach Larry Brown. In fact, it's year three of Larry Brown, right about the time he usually jumps ship. The team is built with too many 6'7"-6'10" players and depth is a concern. The center position features, Nazr Mohammed, DeSagana Diop, and Kwame Brown. Need I write more?
LOCKS
Playoffs: Miami, Orlando, Boston, Chicago, Atlanta
Not in playoffs: Toronto
WESTERN CONFERENCE
NORTHWEST DIVISION
1. Portland Trail Blazers (3) - Yes, turmoil at the top of the organization, but the Trail Blazers have an exceptional roster that if it can stay healthy will make this team extremely dangerous. The key, as always, is health. Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla will both likely be out of action at the beginning of the season, but if healthy will change the expectations for this team. Brandon Roy is another player that always needs to be monitored from a health standpoint. When he's healthy he's one of the top 15 players in the game and someone who can be relied on as a #1 talent. This is the team that isn't getting the attention, but if everything comes together will be come playoff time.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder (4) - Just about everyone is picking the Thunder to finish in the top two in the conference and challenge the Lakers in the playoffs. They certainly have the talent and leadership to do it, but now they have a target on their back and they'll have to be consistent. They also faced almost zero adversity last season. Perhaps the biggest winner out of "The Decision" was Kevin Durant who showed humility in signing his new contract and led the United States to the Gold Medal in the FIBA World Championship. The Thunder are so well constructed and have flexibility moving forward. With all the talent on the roster, there is not a single player making $7 million or more this season. Oklahoma City will be great.
3. Utah Jazz (5) - Utah did a fine job of filling holes that were left when they lost Carlos Boozer, Wesley Matthews, and Kyle Korver. Instead of having to rebuild, they traded for Al Jefferson, signed Raja Bell, and drafted Gordon Hayward. Jefferson will offensive punch and size while Deron Williams is as good as there is at point guard. They are still left with some of the same problems they have had as they will not have both size and defense on the floor at the same time from their front line. They'll need Mehmet Okur to return from injury healthy and productive.
4. Denver Nuggets (9) - Stability would not be a word used to describe this team. Head coach George Karl is coming back after battling cancer, Kenyon Martin wants a new deal, and then there's Carmelo Anthony and the unknown surrounding his situation. This is a collection of players that are dangerous when things are going well, but volatile when things aren't. With the uncertainties surrounding them I'm counting on things not going well, which would be a shame given Karl's return to the team. If things do happen to go well, they could be a decent playoff team with the addition of Al Harrington.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves (15) - The clear cut favorite to finish with the worst record in the conference. This is an extremely young team without a legitimate star that's trying to develop as a collective group. They don't have a player over 30 years old and only two above 25. The Timberwolves don't have a single player making over $5 million this year. While they didn't get enough return when they traded Al Jefferson, they did well in acquiring Martell Webster and Michael Beasley. The goal now has to be to figure out who can play and who can't. Minnesota's roster is locked in for the most part, so they are either going to grow or move some players to have more roster flexibility.
PACIFIC DIVISION
1. Los Angeles Lakers (1) - The scary thing is that the two-time defending champions improved their team from a year ago. By adding Steve Blake, Matt Barnes, and Theo Ratliff, the Lakers have the best team they have had since Shaquille O'Neal was traded. They now possess a reliable second unit, a weakness last season. The Lakers will probably opt to rest their core players as much as possible setting them up for a fourth straight trip to the NBA Finals. The major issue is keeping the team healthy. Andrew Bynum will miss at least the first month of the season recovering from knee surgery. Keeping Kobe Bryant's minutes down should be a priority given his lingering injuries. All things point to another deep playoff run.
2. Phoenix Suns (8) - The Suns didn't necessarily do the best job of replacing Amare Stoudemire as they brought in talent, but not at the right positions. They have too many players who play the same position and do similar things. Phoenix will be forced to play a small lineup which will make things difficult for Robin Lopez around the rim on both ends. They're going to have a very tough time stopping big men. The Suns will have to use their athleticism and run and gun. There is very little margin for error here. Don't count out a squad led by Steve Nash.
3. Los Angeles Clippers (10) - I know that you should never believe in the Clippers, but this is a promising team (if healthy of course). Blake Griffin will likely win the Rookie of the Year award if healthy and Eric Gordon should be greatly improved. A big concern outside of health is Baron Davis and his investment in winning. They have potential stars in place and a solid enough group around them. That probably means that something will go horribly wrong.
4. Sacramento Kings (13) - An intriguing team that outperformed expectations last season, especially in the beginning. This is the type of team that if you take them for granted will beat you up physically and on the scoreboard. DeMarcus Cousins should be able to step right in and contribute given he has the right mindset. The Cousins-Tyreke Evans combination is a nice starting point, but more help is needed. They will be in a decent place financially after shedding Samuel Dalembert's expiring contract off the books after this season.
5. Golden State Warriors (14) - The Warriors overpaid for David Lee, but it's understandable given team need and the market. The problem is that very little defense will be played. Golden State will be an exciting team to watch most nights and will light up the scoreboard, but stop no one. Another concern is the lack of depth at virtually every position. Someone needs make sure Monta Ellis knows that this is Stephen Curry's team now. Golden State may be happy to find a trade partner for Ellis. Curry and Lee are nice building blocks, but they'll need at least one more star and a bench before they can be taken seriously. At least they'll have a head coach this year.
SOUTHWEST DIVISION
1. Dallas Mavericks (2) - An old, veteran group that performs well in the regular season. They feature three viable big men in Dirk Nowitzki (one of the very best players in the game), Brendan Haywood, and Tyson Chandler. Health is the key there. The Mavericks don't seem to be getting any younger. Seven of the team's top eight in the rotation are at least 28 years old. This is a core that is running out of time. Dallas will have a strong regular season, but are one star away from being a serious championship contender.
2. Houston Rockets (6) - The Rockets (along with the Blazers) are a team that could throw a wrench into the power structure in the Western Conference. Yao Ming absolutely needs to stay healthy for them to have a chance. Houston did a smart thing by announcing they will limit his minutes to 24 per game. This is a team that is full of solid players who know their role and will fill it. If Yao is limited to only 24 minutes, at least one player will have to step up in a big way. Kevin Martin is the key (after Yao's health). Houston has two things that a lot of other teams do not. Depth and size.
3. San Antonio Spurs (7) - The Duncan-Popovich combination is as reliable as there is. The Spurs are likely to continue the trend of managing their core veterans' minutes during the regular season in order to setup a run in the playoffs. Even if they are able to do that, they will have trouble advancing in the playoffs as currently constructed just from a pure talent standpoint. It will be interesting to see how much Tiago Splitter can contribute off the bat and whether Richard Jefferson can mesh in year two. The Tony Parker situation (expiring contract) may get interesting.
4. New Orleans Hornets (11) - This team is Chris Paul. His health and commitment will shape their success. One would expect Paul to get a ton of minutes, but if he's not on the floor, who is running the point? David West is a legitimate #2/#3 player on a good team. Beyond Paul and West though, others on the roster will have to step up their game. Emeka Okafor can play if he's ever healthy, Trevor Ariza is capable of being the fourth best player on a contending team. They are in need of one more #2/#3 option alongside reliable help off the bench. If not for Paul's tremendous talents, which he will hopefully keep in New Orleans, this team would be last in this division.
5. Memphis Grizzlies (12) - Being unselfish is one the keys. O.J. Mayo, Rudy Gay, and Zach Randolph in particular will have to share and coexist. This is where Mike Conley has to step up and control things. The main issue for the Grizzlies is the lack of depth. While they have a strong starting lineup, there is not one player off the bench that can be counted on for consistent contribution. Hasheem Thabeet has bust written all over him (not that that should come as a shock). The core of Gay, Mayo, and Gasol is put together well enough, but more help is needed from their younger, recent draft picks. Those players will have to step in and fill roles. One final point. Did you know that Rudy Gay effectively signed the same contract with the Grizzlies that Kevin Durant did in his extension with the Thunder? Just sayin'.
LOCKS
Playoffs: Los Angeles Lakers, Dallas, Portland, Oklahoma City, Utah, San Antonio
Not in playoffs: Minnesota, Golden State, Sacramento
PLAYOFFS
FIRST ROUND - EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Miami Heat over (8) Philadelphia 76ers -> 4 games
(2) Orlando Magic over (7) New York Knicks -> 5 games
(3) Boston Celtics over (6) Milwaukee Bucks -> 5 games
(4) Chicago Bulls over (5) Atlanta Hawks -> 7 games
FIRST ROUND - WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Los Angeles Lakers over (8) Phoenix Suns -> 5 games
(2) Dallas Mavericks over (7) San Antonio Spurs -> 6 games
(3) Portland Trail Blazers over (6) Houston Rockets -> 7 games
(4) Oklahoma City over (5) Utah Jazz -> 6 games
CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS - EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Miami Heat over (4) Chicago Bulls -> 6 games
(3) Boston Celtics over (2) Orlando Magic -> 7 games
CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS - WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Los Angeles Lakers over (4) Oklahoma City Thunder -> 7 games
(3) Portland Trail Blazers over (2) Dallas Mavericks -> 6 games
CONFERENCE FINALS - EASTERN CONFERENCE
(3) Boston Celtics over (1) Miami Heat -> 7 games
CONFERENCE FINALS - WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Los Angeles Lakers over (3) Portland Trail Blazers -> 6 games
NBA FINALS
Los Angeles Lakers over Boston Celtics -> 6 games
AWARDS
MVP
1. Kevin Durant
2. Dwight Howard
3. LeBron James
4. Kobe Bryant
5. Dirk Nowitzki
Rookie of the Year
1. Blake Griffin
2. DeMarcus Cousins
3. John Wall
4. Greg Monroe
5. Jordan Crawford
(MORE) PREDICTIONS
STEP FORWARD, UP SEASON (better than last year): Kevin Garnett (BOS), Tyrus Thomas (CHA), Derek Rose (CHI), Taj Gibson (CHI), J.J. Hickson (CLE), Arron Afflalo (DEN), Ben Gordon (DET), Roy Hibbert (IND), Darren Collison (IND), Blake Griffin (LAC), Eric Gordon (LAC), Lamar Odom (LAL), Michael Beasley (MIN), Kevin Love (MIN), Brook Lopez (NJ), Terrence Williams (NJ), Marco Belinelli (NO), Anthony Randolph (NY), Kevin Durant (OKC), Russell Westbrook (OKC), Brandon Roy (POR), Nicolas Batum (POR), Leandro Barbosa (TOR), Paul Millsap (UTA), Andray Blatche (WAS), JaVale McGee (WAS)
STEP BACK, DOWN SEASON (worse than last year): Mike Bibby (ATL), Ray Allen (BOS), Boris Diaw (CHA), Stephen Jackson (CHA), Shawn Marion (DAL), Chauncey Billups (DEN), Kenyon Martin (DEN), Aaron Brooks (HOU), Brandon Jennings (MIL), John Salmons (MIL), Marcus Thornton (NO), Vince Carter (ORL), Evan Turner (PHI), Andrea Bargnani (TOR), Jose Calderon (TOR)
CONTRIBUTE IF GIVEN OPPORTUNITY: Jordan Crawford (ATL), Greg Monroe (DET), Chris Douglas-Roberts (MIL), Ersan Ilyasova (MIL), Martell Webster (MIN), Toney Douglas (NY), Eric Maynor (OKC), Serge Ibaka (OKC), Marcin Gortat (ORL), Ryan Anderson (ORL), Lou Williams (PHI), Goran Dragic (PHX), Greg Oden (POR), Joel Przybilla (POR), Omri Casspi (SAC), Beno Udrih (SAC), DeJuan Blair (SA), George Hill (SA), Gordon Hayward (UTA)
KEEP AN EYE ON: Jeff Teague (ATL), Shaquille O'Neal (BOS), D.J. Augustin (CHA), Ramon Sessions (CLE), Rodrigue Beaubois (DAL), Carmelo Anthony (DEN), Monta Ellis (GSW), Kevin Martin (HOU), Baron Davis (LAC), Mike Conley (MEM), Corey Maggette (MIL), Devin Harris (NJ), Chris Paul (NO), Timofey Mozgov (NY), Jeff Green (OKC), Jameer Nelson (ORL), Jrue Holiday (PHI), Elton Brand (PHI), Hedo Turkoglu (PHX), Tony Parker (SA), Richard Jefferson (SA), Tiago Splitter (SA), DeMar DeRozan (TOR), Linas Kleiza (TOR), Al Jefferson (UTA), John Wall (WAS), Gilbert Arenas (WAS)
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